The China Cuisine Association recently released the latest China Restaurant Performance Index (CRPI), which is composed of two core dimensions—Current Status and Future Expectations—measured by 10 key indicators. According to the April report, the overall CRPI stood at 49.68, a slight increase of 0.83 points from the previous month. While the index remains below the neutral threshold, the fluctuation is modest. Since August 2023, the industry has been hovering near the neutral zone, reflecting a mild contraction trend that has lasted nearly nine months. The sector is currently navigating a phase shaped by the dual impact of overall recovery and structural adjustments.

Restaurant Industry in Contraction Mode in April

The Current Status Index for April was 43.34, down by 1.37 points from March. Specifically:

• Sales index: 42.83 (down 1.80 points)
• Profitability index: 41.80 (down 3.69 points)
• Foot traffic index: 44.34 (down 2.55 points)
• Employment index: 44.38 (up 2.57 points)

Survey data reveals that the industry faced broad pressure in April:

• 34.94% of restaurants saw a decline in sales,
• 52.72% reported lower profits,
• 47.80% experienced reduced customer traffic.

Notably, despite the challenges of weakened consumer demand and intense competition, 70.87% of restaurants maintained or increased their workforce, indicating a level of confidence in future operations.

The Expectations Index rose to 56.03 in April, up 3.03 points from the previous month. Key sub-indices also showed improvement:

• Expected sales: 59.55
• Expected profitability: 57.04
• Expected employment: 50.90
• Expected foot traffic: 58.91
• Expected investment: 53.76
• Quarterly outlook: 64.13

All indicators are now above the neutral mark, suggesting a positive outlook for the coming month. With the May Day holiday approaching and continued macroeconomic policy support, restaurants are generally optimistic about their near-term performance. The notable rise in the employment expectations index—returning to neutral territory—suggests a rebound in staffing needs as businesses prepare for the expected holiday surge.

Size-Based Performance Breakdown

Restaurants of all sizes saw improvements in their overall CRPI scores in April.

• Large restaurants (annual revenue over RMB 2 million):

CRPI: 53.58 (up 1.98 points)

 Current Status: 46.08 (down 2.47 points)

 Expectations: 61.08 (up 6.43 points)

• Small restaurants (annual revenue below RMB 2 million):

 CRPI: 48.38 (up 0.44 points)

 Current Status: 42.42 (down 1.01 points)

 Expectations: 54.35 (up 1.90 points)

Despite modest declines in current performance for both large and small establishments, the difference between them was minimal—excluding employment, all sub-indices saw slight dips. This highlights the industry-wide operational pressures.

Looking ahead, large restaurants expressed greater optimism, with their expectations index reaching 61.08 and key sub-indices such as expected sales, profitability, and foot traffic all surpassing 60. Small restaurants also showed a positive outlook, with their key sub-indices exceeding 55. Overall, confidence in the next month remains high, particularly among larger establishments.

Sector-Based Performance Breakdown

Among various restaurant formats, only BBQ and beverage shops recorded a performance index above neutral in April, at 50.89 and 54.35 respectively, up 1.25 and 3.65 points. The expectations indices for Western-style dining, BBQ, and beverages all exceeded 60, signaling continued positive momentum.

On the other hand, casual dining and bakery/dessert formats saw noticeable declines—down 4.56 and 5.32 points, respectively—due to a combination of seasonal shifts, fierce competition, changing consumer preferences, and broader market headwinds.

Conclusion

April’s data paints a mixed picture: while the Current Status Index declined and remains below the neutral line, the Expectations Index rose above 50, indicating optimism for the month ahead. This suggests that although restaurants are still facing operating challenges, they remain hopeful about business prospects in May and the upcoming summer season.

Source: China Cuisine Association