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Food Exhibition | The Inflection Point for Aquaculture in 2025: Challenges and Opportunities on the Horizon

2025.01.15

As the global aquaculture industry continues to grow rapidly, China's aquaculture sector is confronting new challenges and opportunities. Food Exhibition will provide an in-depth analysis of the evolving landscape of China's aquatic products.

 

Production Changes

 

Over the past 30 years, global aquaculture has experienced rapid growth, becoming the fastest-growing segment in the food sector. However, in recent years, both global capture fishery and aquaculture production, as well as aquatic product consumption and trade, have entered a phase of slow growth. China's aquaculture industry is also entering a new phase where green and sustainable high-quality development is the trend for the future. Affected by the decline in fishery resources and ecological environment management, the country's capture fishery output has been decreasing year by year, and the utilization rate of nearshore aquaculture areas is close to saturation, making the development of new aquaculture spaces imperative. Deep-sea aquaculture, with about 10% growth potential, is significant for optimizing the spatial layout of aquaculture, promoting the transformation and upgrading of the marine fishery industry, and implementing a diversified food supply system.

 

In 2023, China's aquaculture reached an inflection point, with the production of aquaculture feed experiencing its first decline, and the limited global supply of fishmeal constraining the growth of aquaculture. The weakening market for aquatic products has led to extended farming cycles and a decrease in water surface rental prices in areas like the Pearl River Delta. These phenomena suggest that aquaculture is shifting from a focus on rapid "quantity" growth to a greater emphasis on enhancing "quality."

 

Market Changes

 

In terms of international trade, the demand for imported aquatic products is primarily driven by the markets of China, the United States, and Europe. In recent years, the decline in aquatic product consumption, coupled with geopolitical conflicts that have impacted supply chains, has led to significant adjustments in logistics costs and insufficient demand for aquatic products. Global capture and aquaculture, as well as consumption and trade, have entered a phase of slow growth. From 2019 to the first half of 2024, among the major exporting countries, only China's aquatic product export growth rate was negative, while others were positive. In 2024, except for Canada, the export of aquatic products from other countries has declined.

 

Domestically, the depreciation of the euro and yen, along with persistent inflation in developed economies like Europe and the United States, has led consumers to reduce purchases or switch to relatively cheaper alternative animal proteins. In the first three quarters of 2024, China's aquatic product exports were 3.0016 million tons, valued at $14.822 billion; imports were 5.1833 million tons, valued at $16.934 billion, with a trade deficit of $2.112 billion. Compared to the same period in 2023, the deficit narrowed by $0.781 billion.

 

Challenges and Opportunities

 

The trend in aquatic product consumption indicates a decline in consumption in traditional major importing countries, with China seeing more growth in imports than Europe and the United States. Geopolitical conflicts have led to increased global logistics and energy costs, and a sluggish global economy has led to consumer downgrading, with reduced spending on food and clothing being a priority. Additionally, Sino-American trade frictions and the disruption of global supply chains present challenges. The United States has imposed anti-dumping duties on imported shrimp from countries like Ecuador, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, leading to changes in market dynamics.

 

Despite the complex international situation, China's aquatic products face a variety of challenges but also have many positive factors. For instance, after the US interest rate cuts, inflation has been controlled, allowing many countries to implement loose monetary policies. China's free trade zone construction can optimize supply chains, benefiting imports and exports. Product innovation also brings opportunities for Chinese cuisine to go global. The consumption habits of the younger generation favor convenient and quick-to-prepare processed aquatic products, which have growth potential. With the advancement of urbanization and an aging population, there is an increased demand for optimized dietary nutrition, creating room for growth in high-quality protein. Convenient and diverse processed aquatic products, coupled with an improved cold chain logistics system and the world's most efficient delivery, can further stimulate the consumption of aquatic products.

 

Conclusion

 

In 2025, China's aquaculture industry is set to face an inflection point, with challenges and opportunities coexisting. The industry needs to adapt to new market changes, enhance product quality, optimize production structures, and expand distribution channels to meet challenges and seize opportunities. Through innovation and adjustment, China's aquaculture industry is expected to achieve sustainable development and meet the demands of both domestic and international markets.

 

If you would like to learn more about the food industry, please visit the SIAL China website for more information.

 

Source: Aquaculture Circle

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